It seems that every second sentence written or spoken in the technology world is about AI. Though I agree that AI has the potential to become one of the most significant disruptions in information technology since the advent of the browser, this continuous drumbeat feels all too familiar.
This is one of the times when I wheel around in my chair and grab the perfect antidote to any new technology fever: my well-worn, dog-eared copy of "Technological Revolutions and Financial Capital: The Dynamics of Bubbles and Golden Ages", the classic work of Carlota Perez. I won't try to summarize the breadth and depth of her work but instead focus on the key diagram that I have burned into my mind, the "S-curve" of technology adoption vs. deployment:
With the development of any new technology, there's an "irruption" [sic] period of excitement, where the technology is demonstrated to great acclaim, and much is written about the potential. This phase is followed immediately by a financial "frenzy", where speculative capital pours into the sector, driving up asset prices. Just when prices seem to be stratospheric, there is an economic crash, which drives prices down. It's only AFTER the crash that the real "synergy" phase commences, where the innovation is finally put to work in meaningful ways, and users begin to see returns. Eventually, the technology matures and goes into maintenance mode, and the cycle repeats for the next major innovation.
The work of Dr. Perez shows that this pattern goes back to the 18th century Industrial Revolution, and was manifest with the Railway Panic, all the way through to the Internet Bubble.
This is why those excited by AI should take this book as gospel. The patterns are just too consistent to ignore. Dr. Perez has much more to say on this topic, and I encourage you to read her work.
Conversely, you could simply trust the words of the immortal Carl "CJ" Johnson from the early 21st-century classic, "Grand Theft Auto":
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